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We describe representative observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational wave detectors as they approach design sensitivity. We incorporate recent estimates of the infrastructure latency and detector sensitivities to provide up-to-date predictions. We use Fisher analysis to approximate the associated localizations, and we directly compare to Bayestar to quantify biases inherited from this approach. In particular, we show that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect and distribute ≲1 signal with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 15 before a merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70% duty cycle. This is consistent with previous early warning detection estimates. We estimate that 60% of all observations and 8% of those detectable 20 s before a merger will be localized to ≲100 deg². If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, 70% of these binary neutron stars will be localized to ≲100 deg²by a merger. As the Aundha–Hanford–KAGRA–Livingston–Virgo network approaches design sensitivity over the next ∼10 yr, we expect one (six) early warning alerts to be distributed 60 (0) s before a merger. Although adding detectors to the Hanford–Livingston–Virgo network at design sensitivity impacts the detection rate at ≲50% level, it significantly improves localization prospects. Given uncertainties in sensitivities, participating detectors, and duty cycles, we consider 103 future detector configurations so electromagnetic observers can tailor preparations toward their preferred models.

The existence of primordial black holes (PBHs), which may form from the collapse of matter overdensities shortly after the Big Bang, is still under debate. Among the potential signatures of PBHs are gravitational waves (GWs) emitted from binary black hole (BBH) mergers at redshiftsz≳ 30, where the formation of astrophysical black holes is unlikely. Future ground-based GW detectors, the Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope, will be able to observe equal-mass BBH mergers with total mass of$\mathit{}(10–100)M_{\odot }$at such distances. In this work, we investigate whether the redshift measurement of a single BBH source can be precise enough to establish its primordial origin. We simulate BBHs of different masses, mass ratios and orbital orientations. We show that for BBHs with total masses between 20M_⊙and 40M_⊙merging atz≥ 40, one can inferz> 30 at up to 97% credibility, with a network of one Einstein Telescope, one 40 km Cosmic Explorer in the US, and one 20 km Cosmic Explorer in Australia. This number reduces to 94% with a smaller network made of one Einstein Telescope and one 40 km Cosmic Explorer in the US. We also analyze how the measurement depends on the Bayesian priors used in the analysis and verify that priors that strongly favor the wrong model yield smaller Bayesian evidences.

The Einstein Telescope (ET), the European project for a third-generation gravitational-wave detector, has a reference configuration based on a triangular shape consisting of three nested detectors with 10 km arms, where each detector has a 'xylophone' configuration made of an interferometer tuned toward high frequencies, and an interferometer tuned toward low frequencies and working at cryogenic temperature. Here, we examine the scientific perspectives under possible variations of this reference design. We perform a detailed evaluation of the science case for a single triangular geometry observatory, and we compare it with the results obtained for a network of two L-shaped detectors (either parallel or misaligned) located in Europe, considering different choices of arm-length for both the triangle and the 2L geometries. We also study how the science output changes in the absence of the low-frequency instrument, both for the triangle and the 2L configurations. We examine a broad class of simple 'metrics' that quantify the science output, related to compact binary coalescences, multi-messenger astronomy and stochastic backgrounds, and we then examine the impact of different detector designs on a more specific set of scientific objectives.